Bryce Harper Over-Under Home Runs 34.5
This number seems completely obtainable with Harper playing half of his game in the hitter-hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. When it came to home runs, Citizens Bank Park ranked fourth in the league for home runs in 2018, first in 2017 and seventh in 2016. For reference, Nationals parked ranked fifth, 13th and 15th in that same time span.
The move to Citizens Bank Park should be a boost to his power no matter how you look at it. In fact, 93 home runs were hit by lefties at this stadium, which was the fifth highest in the league. In 2017, lefties hit 92 home runs, which ranked them ninth in the league. No matter how you look at it, this was a great landing spot for the powerful lefty.
Another encouraging stat is Harper’s HR/FB ratio. After taking a huge dip in 2016 down to 14.3%, Harper boosted those numbers to 24% and 23.1% over the last two seasons. If he can once again sustain that type of production – we should expect some good power from Harper. Despite only surpassing this 34.5 once in his career, I think he should do so for the second time in 2019. This prop bet is most likely where I would use our PointsBet Promo Code for up to $1000 in Free bets! Also the odds to lead MLB in HR’s this season.
PICK = OVER 34.5
Bryce Harper Over-Under RBI Total 94.5
If you’re liking Harper to go over 34.5 home runs, you might as well take the over on the RBI total as well. In the two seasons, Harper has hit at least 30 home runs, he also had 118 and 103 RBI respectively. In a lineup that is expected to generate a ton of offense, this should be an over as well.
Projected to bat third, Harper will likely bat behind Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura. Both players are above average in getting on base and that should continue again this season. Before joining the Phillies, Segura posted an on-base percentage of .349 and .341. McCutchen spent time with the Pirates, Giants and Yankees over the last three years, with on-base percentages of .363 in 2017 and .368 in 2018. Having those players in front of him should give him ample amount of RBI opportunities.
In his career, Harper is a .295 hitter with men on base with 77 home runs and 414 RBI. If we shrink that number down a bit to men in scoring position, he’s a .276 hitter with 34 home runs and 310 RBI. Again, in a lineup that is chock-full of players who can get on-base and a favorable ballpark, Harper should flourish.
PICK = OVER 94.5
Bryce Harper Over-Under Batting Average .274
This is the toughest stat to gauge for Harper. His power has been consistent all throughout his career. Aside from an injury-plagued 2014 season, Harper has hit at least 20 home runs in six of the seven seasons he’s been up in the majors. His batting average, well, that’s a different story. We’ve seen it end as high as .319 (2017) to as low as .243 (2016). So landing on a number we feel comfortable with is a bit difficult.
My gut instinct has me taking the under on this one. Throughout his career, the under would have hit in four of his seven seasons while pushing on another. Harper also walks a ton. He’s had over 100 in two of his last three seasons, ending with a batting average of .243 and .249 in those. Teams also implant the shift a ton on Harper, which hurts his overall batting average by taking away any potential hits hit to the right side. Without the shift, Harper posted a .404 wOBA while facing the shift saw that number drop to .351.
PICK = UNDER .274
Additionally, keep an eye on Bryce Harper odds to hit on homerun on opening day against the Braves. Currently, FanDuel Sportsbook has the odds set at +300 that Harper goes yard. PointsBet has set the line at +275.
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